Voters are influenced not by whether growth may be slightly higher or lower, but by which party crafts the better narrative
Despite one or two scares along the way, the UK has not suffered a recession since the deep slump of 2008-09, but it came close to one this year. The economy contracted in the second quarter and for a while there were fears that it could do so again in the three months to September.
Those fears have proved misplaced. The City expects the Office for National Statistics to announce growth of 0.3% tomorrow when it unveils its first estimate of third-quarter gross domestic product. The Bank of England has pencilled in a 0.4% expansion.