Concerning The Succes Earthquake
CONCERNING THE SUCCES EARTHQUAKE
PREDICTION IN THE BLACK SEA REGION
A.B. Kapochkina
YEGORAN (Young Ecological Group Odessa’s Regional Academy of Science)
The earthquakes prediction problem is exceptively actual so far as earthquakes themselves and natural disasters connected with them are the most destroying according to a number of killed people caused loss and possible ecological consequences. Under earthquakes threat there are the spacious dense populated areas. Still in antiquity Aristotel, Lukretsiy, Strabon, Pliniy and others expressed an opinion about the possibility of earthquakes predictions. The first attempts of practical steps realization concerning this direction were undertaken by B.B. Golitsin in Russia, by A. Imamura - in Japan, by G. Rade in USA only in the beginning of XX century. B.B. Golitsin was one among the first who formulated a hydrogeochemical approach to this problem solution and I dare to express an opinion about the fact that at the present time this approach is the information most preferable for the short-term earthquakes prediction. According to the published in the Soviet scientific literature about the achieved successes in earthquakes predictions one can note that on the present moment practically all the described cases of successful leading earthquakes predictions were based on the data of the hydrogeochemical forerunners. At the present time the perspectives of geophysical methods are limited with the low level of technical means and also possibly with the weak development of a prediction theoretical basis founded on this approach. It’s confirmed with the examples of the earthquakes consequences in Armenia in 1988 and in California in 1989 which happened perfectly unexpectedly for scientists in sprite of the fact that in the USSR and the USA the wide researches concerning earthquakes prediction are set up on the geophysical methods basis.
The real methodology of shortterm earthquakes forecast historically built in the ex-USSR &in the China. To our mind just to reason there are some cases
of successful earthquakes predictions (China - 04.02.75. M=7.3; Russia (Kamchatka) - 09.06.93.M=7.1; (Kamchaka) - 13.11.93.M=7.4).
For the first time in the World we’ve elaborated &patented the realiable method of sea earthquake prediction (patent (technology)-SU N 1827139, A G 01 V 9/00, 08.03.93; Certificate of invention: SU N 1233080 registration 22.01.86, SU N 1295924 registration 08.11.86, SU N 1351413 registration 08.07.87, SU N 277602 registration 1.07.88, SU N 305 167 registration 1.12.89.
The positive experience of this approach application to sea earthquakes prediction firstly was received in Odessa State University where beginning from 1982 under the direction Dr. Tkachenko the investigations concerning earthquakes prediction in Crimean and Caucausis sea seismic zones, in Turkish and Carpathian seismic zones have been carried out quite successfully. The special sea researches were fulfilled in consequence of which a method of middle-term, short-term and leading sea earthquakes prediction was elaborated. A wide spectrum of forerunners was discovered, the unknown before fluids regime laws were brought to light. These laws permit to predict not only the time of an expected earthquake but such parametres as place and force, and it practically doesn’t have any analogues. The elaborated methodics is successfully run up for the sea seismic zone towards south from the Crimean peninsula and this methodics is in the introduction stage. Now the analogical researches are carried out in sea seismic zones of the Black Sea Caucausis coast. We must note that our fulfilled investigations in the seismic active zones of Red Sea, in the Indian Ocean rift zones allow to suppose that the laws discovered in he Black Sea have the general character.
Also in the report there will be paid the special attention to the processes occuring before an earthquake.
We consider that the appearance of the hydrogeochemical foreruners, objectively displayed before an earthquake, can be explained with practically all positions of earthquake centre existing models. The earthquakes hydrogeochemical forerunners appearance is well explained with the hypothesis by D. G. Osyk, 1981, who considers that the growth of the tectonic tensions in the earth crust accompanied with earthquakes occur in consequence of asthenosphere matter discompaction accompanied with fluids regime activization.
As to I. G. Kissin’s opinion, 1984, the hydrogeochemical anomalies observed before earthquakes can be exhibited in a consequence of break with shift deformation. During the growth of the tectonical tensions the mineral matter phase transformation can happen in the earth crust after which the liberated water and geseous combinations caused the activisation of fluids regime. The fluids regime activisation before earthquakes can be explained also with the position of «dilatancy» model.
To our mind later on when one evaluates the reasons hydrogeochemical anomalies appearans before earthguakes. It’s necessary to take the preference to studying of mechanochemical processes occuring in a centre zone before earthquakes as a result of minerals destruction. Still these years it was established that when a solid matter is destructed in places of fractures formation the local heatingup to 1000°C occurs and the pressure rises short-termly to 15000 atm. In these conditions the galogenic combinations decompose with metal liberation, water decomposes diving off the atomic hydrogen. During the mechanical destruction of rocks in the water environments the conditions for hydrothermal reactions are created. For example, during carbonites destruction ions CO3 disintegrate into CO2 and oxegen ion.
Comparing the perspectives of using of the hydrogeochemical approach to an earthquakes prediction in sea seismic zones and on the land problem, our investigations results give the base for the priority to sea seismic zones. On the hydrogeochemical earthquakes forerunners registered on the land in wells the mispresents are imposed connected with tecnogenic influence, the atmosphere processes, the sediments and melted waters infiltration, others processes the influence of which can be neglected on depth more than 50-70m. Our researches are based on long-term marine observations, hydrophysical and hydrochemical indexes of the sea water, the geochemical indexes of the bottom sediments, in totality with the observations for seismicity in the Black Sea seismic zones.
It’s founded on the unknown before phenomena and regularities. These laws permit to predict the time, place and force of an expected earthquake.
Our technology capacity for work in the Crimea and Kaucasus seismic zones (Black Sea) in the Kamchatka peninsula seismic zones (Pacific ocean). We have successful experience of short-term earthquakes predictions: 30.08.86, M=7.0 & 30.05.90, M=7.0 (Romania); 09.06.93, M=7,1 & 13.11.93, M=7.4 (Kamchatka). About this forecasts take place any publications in newspapers, some informations was translated by radio & TV. Now, our Group working by Program Russia Government (State Geological Commitee & State Commitee by Extremal Situation) in Kamchatka seismic zone. Near the Petropavlowsk-Kamchatsky working our forecast system. Observations was begin in May 1992 & making with help recearch ship «V.Popov». Some information is reported on (1,2.3.4).
Our system earthquake prediction on principle better the Japan system (Meteorological Agency) & USA system earthquake forecast (NEPEC, USGS). We have realy successful experience in the short-term forecast earthquakes.
PROJECT OPERATIONS:
The Operator (Our Group) in the cooperation with the Recipient Party will conduct appropriate geological and oceanographic studies and surveys designed to delineate optimum locations for at-sea observation and data collecting stations within the selected area (hereinafter referred to as «Agreement Area»).
After the results of the studies and surveys have been analised and evaluated by the Contractor in consultation with the Recipient Party there will be established a network of observation and monitoring station and a data processing and earthquake forecasting system.
The EQ-Technology buoys (ship) with appropriate equipment will be established and left in place permanently offshore to monitor necessary data to shorebased processing centres. For the establishment of data processing and forecasting system exsting computer facilities and equipment can be utilized.
PROJECT PHASES :
PHASE 1. Negotiation of an appropriate type of agreement for the EQ-Technology use, the patenting the EQ-Technology in the Recipient Party’s country.
PHASE 2. (1-2 months). Review by the Bureau experts of existing data furnished by Recipient Party, and detailed planning of at sea research and survey programme.
PHASE 3.(2-4 months). At-sea research and survey using the vessel personnel and equipment. Preparation of geological, ecological and oceanographic maps for the offshore Contact Area.
PHASE 4. (1-2 months). Analysing the results of the at-sea research and operations, selection of the location of the observation and monitoring station, types of equipment, processing facilities and communication system and earthquake forecasting programmes. Arrangements for at-sea establishment of the equipment.
PHASE 5. (1-2 months). At-sea operations for the establishment of the observation and monitoring equipment and development of proper transmission of data to the selected shorebased processing facilities.
PHASE 6. (1-2 months). Initial stage of data monitoring and processing, necessary modifications (if any) to the EQ-Technology.
PHASE 7. Functioning of the system, it’s commercial using.
FINANCING COSTS:
Project budget should be prepared at early stages of the project definition phase. These are only some preliminary incomplete ideas conserning expenditures that might be involved:
PHASE 1. - Travel costs for the Bureau representatives (3 persons) to the Recipient Party’s location to negotiate arrangements.
PHASE 2. - Salary and Benefits for the Bureau experts (4 persons including an interpreter), travel and lodging costs for the experts and their spouses. These costs go throughout all the phases to Phase 4.
PHASE 3. - Charter of a survey vessel and scientific and technology equipment from the Operator, including payments to the Ship crew and scientific personnel.
PHASE 4. - The same as Phase 2.
PHASE 5. - The cost of the equipment for the at-sea observation and monitoring station: charter of a ship for at-sea installation of the equipment including payments to necessary technical personnel; payments for communication system to transmit the monitoring data to shorebased processing facilities.
PHASE 6. - Employment costs for technical personnel to operate the system at processing centres: cost of at-sea operations to control and repair equipment of the observations station.
PHASE 7. - The same as Phase 6, but in the constant regime.
References
1. Г.Г. Ткаченко, Г.П. Декин, Б.Б. Капочкин, Н.В. Кучеренко, Изучение причин вариаций сейсмичности в 90-х годах. Материалы региональной научно-практической конференции 31 марта - 1 апреля 1999г. Петропавловск-Камчатский, КАМШАТ, с. 110-112.
2. Г.П. Декин, Б.Б. Капочкин, Извержение Крымского вулкана в материалах мониторинга геологической среды в Авачинской бухте., Материалы региональной научно-практической конференции 31 марта - 1 апреля 1999г. Петропавловск-Камчатский, КАМШАТ, с. 113-114.
3. Б.Б. Капочкин, Н.В. Кучеренко, Состояние проблемы краткосрочного прогноза землетрясений в Тихоокеанском регионе. Материалы научно-практической конференции ОРАН, Одесса, Астро Принт, 1999г. с.108.
4. Б.Б. Капочкин, Н.В. Кучеренко, Состояние проблемы краткосрочного прогноза землетрясений на Украине. Материалы научно-практической конференции ОРАН, Одесса, АстроПринт, 1999г. с.108.
5. A.Б. Капочкина А.Б. «Глобальные геодинамические причины Турецкого землетрясения 1999г.
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